For the primary time since 1970, NFL Wild Card Weekend Options rematches in all six video games. From Tom Brady and the Bucks renew their acquaintance in Tampa towards Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to tag group rivals Cincinnati and Baltimore meet in Queen MetropolisEvery of the six wild card matches is filled with historical past and afterstories, and the group in NBC Sports activities Edge Have you ever set Wild Card Weekend picks and predictions heading into the upcoming occasion.
As sports activities bettors zoom in on every recreation and search for benefits they will make the most of within the betting window they should establish and eradicate stale stats. For instance, a group’s file within the common season proved to matter little within the opening spherical of the postseason. Over the previous 14 seasons, the groups which have performed yet another recreation within the common season have been 25-26 SU and 21-29-1 ATS with groups sharing the identical file on 9 events.
Associated: 2023 NFL Wild Card Weekend schedule
Most individuals agree that coaches and gamers are vital. First-time playoff coaches have been much more profitable than rookie sign callers. Up to now 4 years, beginning coaches have gone 8-3 SU and ATS (72.7%) when going through a extra skilled coach. Since 2004, first-year quarterbacks of their first playoff recreation have carried out poorly, going 17-40 SU and 17-39-1 ATS (30.4%) when going through an opposing sign caller with a playoff expertise.
Take and do no matter you need with these stats. Know that NBC Sports activities’ NFL group has crunched previous these numbers to seek out their favourite performs for each recreation this weekend in all the things from sides and totals to participant props. The group consists of Jay Croucher (JD) and von Dalziel (@worker), and Lawrence Jackson (@LordDontLose). Tail (or fade) as you see match.
Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers -9.5 (Over/Beneath 43)
Observe: 49ers ranking 4y All time with 32 playoff wins compiled over 27 years of playoff appearances – 26 within the NFL and one within the AAFC.
Crusher: DK Metcalf underneath 61.5 yards
Metcalfe had 55 and 35 receiving yards in his two video games towards the Niners within the common season. Within the latter recreation, Metcalf was lined by Charvarius Ward, the Niners’ strongest cornerback. Count on Ward to get the Metcalf job once more and the Seahawks to focus on Tyler Lockett extra usually, who might be lined by the weaker Decommore Lenoir.
Dalziel: Seahawks +10
Throughout your complete historical past of the NFL, solely 14 occasions have groups defeated the identical opponent thrice in a single season. The 49ers will attempt to do precisely that towards the Seahawks right here.
Seattle scored simply 7 and 13 factors in two video games towards San Francisco, however neither state of affairs was a great time to shore up the Seahawks. The Seahawks confronted the 49ers in Week 2 after a one-point victory over Russell Wilson and the Broncos on Monday Evening Soccer. The second assembly got here after the loss on Sunday in Week 14 earlier than the 49ers performed Thursday Evening Soccer (a shortened week) in Week 15. The Seahawks can be higher ready this time and rookie quarterbacks (comparable to Brock Purdy) would usually wrestle within the early recreation. The primary, as talked about earlier.
Jackson: Kenneth Walker 16.5+ speeding makes an attempt (-105)
Kenneth Walker’s 16.5 o/u (-105) on rush makes an attempt is likely to be a entice, however I am taking the bait. He averaged 26 catches in his final three video games because the Seahawks made a concerted effort to run the ball to take some stress off Geno Smith. Curiously, the final time Walker had underneath 16.5 carries (12) was towards the 49ers in Week 15. The Seahawks had been 9.5-point canine, however even within the two-point loss towards the Chiefs in Week 16, Walker had 26 carries.
Observe: That is the one Wild Card recreation in 2023 between two 4,000-yard passers in Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert.
Crusher: Austin Eckler over 36.5 yards
No group permits extra receiving yards to run in than the Jags. Jags rush protection has been stellar this season (6y greatest in Rush EPA allowed) and their go protection was horrible. Count on the Chargers to focus on Ekeler on the passing recreation. Within the first assembly between these two groups, Ekeler was focused 8 occasions for 48 yards.
Dalziel: Justin Herbert 37.5+ go makes an attempt (-120)
Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert are each making their profession debuts. I belief Herbert much more on this area of interest, and given Herbert’s resume in NBC Sports activities Primetime video games, I like the possibilities he lights up in his first playoff recreation.
Herbert is second within the NFL with 4,739 speeding yards and 279 or extra speeding yards in 9 of 17 video games this season and 37 or extra go makes an attempt in 11 video games. I count on plenty of passes from Herbert, so he returns passes at 37.5. I are inclined to over 280.5 yards.
Jackson: Travis Etienne OVER 76.5 Speeding Yards (-110)
Etienne has averaged over 77 speeding yards over the past 4 video games, together with 17 towards the Elite Titans protection. The Chargers have given up 100 or extra speeding yards to 3 of the final 4 working backs they’ve confronted. Zack Moss could not do it as a result of Nick Foles was too busy giving the Chargers the ball. Run this Chargers group till confirmed in any other case.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Payments -9.5 (Over/Beneath 46.5)
Observe: Buffalo has received 10 of their final 11 video games at Orchard Park towards Miami. Watch this unfold. If it doubles, bear in mind this: Within the final 13 video games that includes a distinction of 10 or extra factors, the underdog received solely as soon as.
Crusher: James Cook dinner over 36.5 speeding yards
Over the previous two weeks, Buffalo’s working recreation has leaned extra on James Cook dinner, with Cook dinner outpacing Devin Singletary. 36.5 is fairly low for a possible RB1 on the 13-point favourite.
Dalzell: Sport total underneath 43.5 (-110)
Tua Tagovailoa is out for this recreation and now the margin has gone from -9.5 to -13.5 in Buffalo’s favour. With Skyler Thompson at quarterback, plus Tyrek Hill and Jaylen Waddell coping with accidents, I do not see Miami scoring greater than two objectives right here, so I am going to run the sport underneath.
Jackson: Josh Allen underneath 33.5 passing makes an attempt (-105)
In two video games towards the Dolphins this season, Josh Allen has tried 103 passes. With the Payments being the 13.5 favourite it does not appear to be he’ll ever have to do it once more which is why I like him to go underneath 33.5 go makes an attempt. Accidents have devastated the Dolphins, the largest being Tua Tagovailoa, who will not be there to commerce pictures with Allen.
Associated: RotoPat classifies the postseason discipline
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings -3 (Over/Beneath 48.5)
Observe: The Vikings led the NFL in 4y Scored 1 / 4 this season and averaged 9.9 factors within the Ultimate 15. The Giants are ranked fifthy A median of seven.4 factors in 4y each week.
Crusher: The Sport has an total rating of lower than 48.0
Star Vikings deal with Brian O’Neill, beginning middle Garrett Bradbury is swinging and the Vikings run has been horrible recently. The Giants protection is the healthiest all season, with Adoree Jackson on course for working backs, and abruptly the defensive position is a severe pressure, with Kayvon Thibodeaux 100% built-in together with Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams, and Azeez Ojulari. Every little thing signifies that the scoring recreation is decrease than the earlier one.
Dalziel: Minnesota Vikings -3 (-110)
This looks like one of many tougher video games to beat on the listing, however on condition that the Giants are 2-5-1 in ML of their final eight video games they usually’re clearly not taking part in their greatest model of soccer and should fade away.
New York is 1-4 in ML of their final 5 street video games, beating solely Washington. As a favourite, Minnesota has gone 12-0 in ML this season in comparison with 1-4 as an underdog. I’d take the Vikings as a favourite and return for probably the most dynamic offense at dwelling within the Dome.
Jackson: Daniel Jones over 241.5 yards (-120)
Daniel Jones’ passing yardage file is about at 241.5 (-120) and I am searching for him to surpass that. Certain, he is thrown for lower than 200 yards in three of his final 4 video games, however you realize which a type of video games he is been in? In opposition to the Vikings, the place Jones threw for 334 yards. Moreover, the Vikings are giving up 29.6 factors per recreation of their final 5 contests. Whereas most of them journey Danny Dimes’ speeding gear, suppose in a different way.
Observe: Joe Borough has aged 19-4 ATS in his final 23 video games.
crusher: Samaje Perine over 16.5 speeding yards
Perine has surpassed that mark in 7 of his previous 8 video games, although Joe Mixon wasn’t round for two of these video games. Perrin squealed over the road in each video games towards the Ravens (17 and 18 yards speeding). Cincinnati could not run the ball in any respect towards Baltimore final week (the run wasn’t greater than 8 yards, 2.8 yards per carry total), so search for them to make use of Perine greater than anticipated as a change of tempo.
Dalzell: Sport total underneath 41.5 (-110)
Lamar Jackson’s standing on this recreation makes an enormous distinction, and if he will get out, everybody’s on the Bengals, and rightfully so. Even when Jackson does play, there have to be a serious rust issue for a quarterback who hasn’t performed in over a month. Take the Bengals if Jackson is out, or take Beneath if he is in.
Jackson: Ja’Marr Chase 77.5+ receiving yards (-115)
Ja’Marr Chase Merely Balls In opposition to Crows. I take the lead at 77.5 (-115) yards. Chase averages 115.5 yards receiving per recreation in his profession towards the Ravens. Even in case you subtract his 201 speeding yards as a junior, he nonetheless averaged 87 yards in conferences towards the Ravens.
Dallas Cowboys -2.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over/Beneath 45.5)
- Kickoff: Jan. 16 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
- Location: Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, Florida
- Dallas Sport Historical past: 35-29 (8 Tremendous Bowls – 5 wins)
- Tampa Bay Sport Date: 11-10 (2 Tremendous Bowl appearances – 2 wins)
- Collection Historical past: Dallas and Tampa Bay have met 21 occasions, together with two playoff video games. The Cowboys have received 15 of their 21 video games together with the playoff video games. Nonetheless, the Bucs have defeated Dallas within the season opener in every of the previous two seasons.
Observe: Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady is an ideal 7-0 in his profession towards the Dallas Cowboys by throwing a mean of 277.9 yards with a complete of 15 TDs and 5 INTs.
Crusher: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5
Dallas’ go protection has collapsed. Over the previous 5 weeks, the Cowboys protection has been ranked twenty ninthy In Dropback EPA. The Cowboys made Gardner Mincio appear to be Patrick Mahomes, after which the subsequent week Mincio may do nothing towards the Saints via the air. In opposition to the Panthers, the Bucs confirmed they nonetheless had the cap to take advantage of and dominate a struggling secondary. Mix Dallas’ go protection with Dak Prescott’s current obsession with turnarounds and the way terrifying he seemed towards the leaders, and it appears to be like just like the mistaken group is favored on this recreation.
Dalziel: Pirate +3
Tom Brady and Bucks get the very best draw as they tackle the Cowboys. Brady groups are 7-0 all-time vs. Dallas, together with a win in Week 1 this season. We’ve but to witness Tampa Bay’s peak or play its greatest ball this yr, whereas Dallas performs mediocre soccer now. Their final three video games included losses to the Chiefs final week, a slender win towards Philly and a backup quarterback in Week 16 and an extra time loss to Jacksonville the week earlier than. Nothing can be stunning in regards to the Bucs successful this recreation outright.
Jackson: Buccaneers ML (+120)
Tom Brady is within the playoffs and there is not any one you belief extra within the postseason, even at 45. Taking the Buccaneers straight looks like a entice, however the Cowboys’ current struggles are onerous to disregard. Bok’s assault has been again on monitor in current weeks and they’re more healthy on either side of the ball than they’ve been in weeks.
group in NBC Sports activities Edge Have you ever lined the newest information on the very best performs and gamers from Wild Card Weekend via l Tremendous Bowl LVII. Now, all of the premium instruments for Fantasy and Betting are included in a single subscription for one low value. Clients can subscribe to NBC Sports activities EDGE+ monthly for $9.99. Click on right here to seek out out extra!